Bryce Harper: Bust or Bust?

Expectations haven't been this high for the first overall pick in the MLB draft since...last year.

Well expectations haven't been this high for the Washington Nationals' first overall pick since...well, last year.

Stephen Strasburg was the most hyped MLB draft pick last year since Alex Rodriguez in '93, and now Bryce Harper is the most hyped since his potential future teammate on the Nationals, Stephen Strasburg, was taken in last season's draft. Bryce Harper has been in the national spotlight since he was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated a year ago and coined "Baseball's LeBron" by SI's Tom Verducci.

Looking back on the 45 years of MLB draft history, no 2 first overall picks in back-to-back years have ever been this highly touted. Why is that exactly? Is it because the MLB draft is finally being covered on national TV, thanks to the debut of the MLB Network, and getting actually media attention? Is it because of the ridiculous stats Strasburg and Harper put up the year before they were drafted? I think it's a little of both.

Last year was the first year the MLB draft was actually televised, and even so it was only the first round. The MLB draft has never been as sexy as the NBA and NFL's draft, and frankly, it never will be. It's not a television spectacle, nor does it try to be. Often the average fans don't know many of the top prospects, much less anyone expected to go after rounds 1 or 2. And you can't honestly count on people grinding out all 50 rounds on their couch. Rounds 4-7 of the NFL draft are hard enough, and college football is thousands of times more popular than college or high school baseball.

As a Junior, Strasburg wowed scouts and fans alike with his fastball that normally hit triple digits on the radar gun at San Diego State University. In '09 Strasburg went 13-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 195 Ks in 109 innings pitched. He also only allowed 59 hits and only walked 19. He showed not only superb stuff, but incredible control of the strike zone. This season's # 1 overall pick in Bryce Harper put up just as amazing stats before his selection.

In 66 games for the College of Southern Nevada, Harper hit .443 with 31 HRs and 98 RBI. OK. OK. OK. I know. The College of Southern Nevada? In the Scenic West Athletic Conference? You mean, the bad SWAC? Why not Arizona St.? Or LSU? Or Texas? Well that's simple. Because Harper decided that after his Sophomore year of high school last year, he would get his GED and enroll in Junior College in order to be eligible for the MLB draft this year. That puts Mr. Harper at age 17. That's right folks, 17. Not to mention that in conference play the bad SWAC uses wooden bats, unlike the aluminum bats of major collegiate baseball. And don't think he's just a dumb jock who can just mash and doesn't know the game of baseball. Harper, who was a catcher growing up, but will play OF for the Nationals, was calling his own game for his pitchers at the age of 11.

So here's the question: Bust or bust? Will Bryce Harper be the next great Hall of Famer with his bust enshrined in Cooperstown? Or will he be the next "sure thing" to fizzle out and never be heard from again?

On paper, all things point to the former. I mean, that's why he was the #1 overall pick, right? If you look at every #1 overall pick in the history of the MLB draft, which dates back to 1965, only 2 players have retired and never made it to the Majors.

In 1966, catcher Steve Wilcott was drafted by the New York Mets and made it as far as Triple A before being released due to injuries. The #2 pick in that very same draft? Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson. Then in 1991 the New York Yankees selected Brien Taylor, a pitcher out of high school. Taylor had a fastball that consistently hovered around 98 or 99 mph. Taylor quickly ascended through the Yankees' farm system, but he tore his labrum and dislocated his shoulder while helping his brother in a fight. Taylor's surgery helped him pitch again, but he lost 8-10 mph of velocity and never had a shot at the Majors again.

The flipside of this is that 17 players that have been selected first overall have gone on to be All-Stars, and two more actually won Rookie of the Year. Among those All-Stars are future Hall of Famers Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, and Joe Mauer.

Only time and maturity will tell for Bryce Harper. Many think 17 is too young to put all of this pressure on a player, but I disagree. Harper has been in the spotlight for years now and continued to thrive. He's only going to get bigger, stronger, and faster as he gets older and he has unlimited potential.

While Bryce Harper had his day yesterday, Strasburg will take the mound tonight for the Nationals against the Pittsburgh Pirates in front of the biggest crowd they've had in DC since they opened the stadium Opening Day '09. And I'll tell you what, expectations haven't been this high since...well, yesterday.