Let's take a look at what they're paying for. Ryan Howard was called up from the Minors for good in 2005 when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award. Then in his first full season in the Majors he won the 2006 NL MVP when he hit .313 with 58 home runs and 149 RBIs. Unfortunately those numbers were, and still, are career highs. In three seasons since then Howard has averaged 47 HRs and 141 RBIs. Those number are nothing to scoff at, but his .266 batting average and 195 Ks a year is.
There's another thing that bothers me about this contract. Does Ryan Howard remind you of another sweet swinging, large, lefty power hitter? Perhaps, David Ortiz of a few years ago? As I said earlier, Ryan Howard will be 32 when this extension kicks in. When Big Papi turned 32, the next season his average dropped .78 points, HR total fell from 35 to 23, RBIs dropped from 117 to 89, on-base percentage dropped from .445 to .369, and slugging percentage dropped from .621 to .507.
This is, quite frankly, a terrible move by Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. In a class of 2011 potential free agents that includes, for now, fellow first basemen Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols Philadelphia overpaid for what will be an over-the-hill and quickly aging Ryan Howard. The Phillies are making the classic mistake of putting together a class of great homegrown players that bring a lot of success to the organization and not knowing when to pull the plug on some of the players. Enjoy your investment Phillies fans.
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