2010 SEC Preview

Every year dimwits are paid for their worthless opinions before the college football season starts, and I'll be the first to admit that I click on every link or headline that says "Preview" or "Predictions". They intrigue me. They excite me. They make me realize how much more I know about each and every college football season than they do. And I do this for free, largely because I love it, but also so on January 11, 2011 I, and all of you, can reopen this post and think "Wow. Jacob is amazing."

However, I'm not the only one having any fun this year. Marshall and Anthony have joined me in my quest to prove that we at NMV know more about the upcoming college football season than some of the jokers we're all supposed to trust. Over the past couple of weeks we've each gone through all 12 SEC teams' schedules predicting wins and losses, answered burning questions you all want to know the answers too, and made some bold, yet prophetic, predictions along the way. We'll start with the one question on every Southerner's mind...

1. Will we see another Florida/Alabama match-up in 2010's rendition of the SEC Championship Game, or can a team supplant the Beasts in the East or the Best in the West?

Jacob - Honestly, I doubt it. Sure both the Gators and Tide have lost several key contributors both offensively and defensively, but no team has been close in either division the past 2 seasons. I believe Arkansas, South Carolina, and LSU close the gaps this season, however none of them will experience Atlanta in December.

Marshall - Florida will be in Atlanta for sure. I agree South Carolina has closed the gap, but even without Tebow I believe Florida is still that much better than the Gamecocks. As for Alabama there are 2 major questions to consider: 1. Can Nick Saban replace virtually his entire defense? 2. Will the Crimson Tide come into this year a bit satisfied with a crystal trophy? If LSU's 2004 season is any indicator of what to expect from Nick Saban coming off of a National Championship year, than Alabama could be in for somewhat of a let-down. I think this year both Arkansas and LSU have a great opportunity to supplant Alabama as "Best in the West".

Anthony - If there is ever a year the Old Ball Coach (Spurrier) has a chance to supplant C.U.M. (Coach Urban Meyer) and the Gators and make it to Atlanta, this is the year. The 'Cocks have junior QB Stephen Garcia coming off a solid sophomore season and ready to take it to another level. South Carolina also has 7 starters returning on a defense that ranked 15th in the nation last year. As far as Alabama is concerned, although Mr. Heisman Mark Ingram is returning, as well as Greg McElroy, I think they've lost too much on defense to compete with my favorite to win the West this year in Arkansas. I see an Arkansas/South Carolina match-up in Atlanta.

2. Which teams will be the SEC's biggest surprise and disappointment?

Marshall - I think this is the year that Mississippi St. becomes a force in the West. Last year they became competitive, but I think this year they turn the corner and turn some if those closer games into wins. If there is any team in the SEC headed in the right direction, it is Mississippi St.

We have seen this same story time and time again for Auburn, and it always ends the same. The only difference this season is that Gene Chizik is now head coach. It will take more than serious pre-season hype and good recruiting classes to be a top SEC team. the Auburn faithful are in for a disappointing year.

Jacob - The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off of 4 straight bowl bids, and are returning Mike Hartline or Morgan Newton at QB, Randall Cobb at WR, and Derrick Locke at RB. Both Cobb and Locke are big time playmakers and first year head coach Joker Phillips knows how to use them as he has been the Offensive Coordinator in Lexington since '05. Kentucky goes to Florida in their first SEC match-up, but every other game against tough SEC competition (Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina) is at home. The Wildcats also get the pleasure of facing Ole Miss and Mississippi St. in the West, while missing out on Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU. This may not be the best Kentucky team in recent years, but with their favorable schedule and experience at key positions, Kentucky will surprise some people this year.

Like Marshall, I'm not sold on the 2010 Auburn Tigers. Sorry. QB Chris Todd played very well for them last season, but they replace him with JUCO transfer Cameron Newton. Newton only attempted a total of 12 passes in his first go around at an SEC school with Florida, and for the past year has been stomping mud holes in JUCO kids. Well the SEC ain't JUCO Cam. Then there's the defense. With all the talk about how bad Arkansas and Georgia's units played in '09, Auburn was actually dead last in the SEC in scoring defense and next to last in total defense. Sure, they have the benefit of 8 of their 12 games at home, but 3 of their 4 road games are against teams in Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Mississippi St. who look like comfy games at home, but on the road turn into serious threats. Add Alabama as their 4th opponent on the road and Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia at home, and suddenly an unlucky Auburn team led by a struggling defense and immature signal caller, and Auburn could be staring 6 losses in the face.

Anthony - I'm going with South Carolina as my surprise team. I think the Gamecocks make it to Atlanta for the first time thanks in part to Florida "reloading", a stout defense that returns 7 starters, and junior QB Stephen Garcia.

I'll make it unanimous by picking Auburn as my biggest disappointment as well. They have not earned all the respect, nor expectations, that have been heaped upon them. They'll finish 3rd in the West at best.

3. Is 2010 finally South Carolina's year?

Anthony - If you don't know how I feel about the Gamecocks by now, then kill yourself.

Marshall - No. The 'Cocks are finally due for a good season and 8-9 wins, but this is not their year.

Jacob - Will the Gamecocks win the East? No. I do think their November 13th match-up in Gainesville against the Florida Gators, and conference finale for both teams, will be for the Eastern Division crown. However, I believe USC-E will win 9 regular season games and for that program, that is a big accomplishment. Since 1985 USC-E hasn't won 9 games in a regular season, and only once (2001) including the postseason. So will it be there year in Columbia? I guess.

4. Who will have the better season, Jeremiah Masoli or Cameron Newton?

Due to yesterday's ruling by the NCAA, I think going with Cameron Newton seems to be the safe bet.

5. After struggling mightily in 2009, can Arkansas and Georgia rebound defensively in 2010?

Jacob - Arkansas is returning 8 of their top 11 tacklers, as well as their leaders in sacks and interceptions. They also return 7 defensive starters under Defensive Coordinator Willy Robinson. Arkansas doesn't need their defense to dominate ballgames, but they do need them to help out the offense in order to have a magical season. If Arkansas can play middle-of-the-pack D for the entire year, which I think they can/will do, they will be able to exceed expectations.

Georgia is a bit trickier. The Bulldogs only return 5 starters defensively and lose leading tacklers LB Rennie Curran, who had a ridiculous 130 tackles, and S Reshad Jones, who led the team in interceptions as well. Head coach Mark Richt relieved DC Willie Martinez of his duties after 5 seasons and hired Dallas Cowboys' Defensive Line coach Todd Grantham who is implementing the 3-4. Trying to break in 6 starters on one side of the ball is enough of an issue, but breaking them in while trying to completely revamp your front 7 is going to be one hell of an undertaking.

Marshall - Both the Bulldogs and Razorbacks will be significantly improved on defense, but fortunately neither team will need to rely on their defensive units to win them games.

Anthony - The short answer on Arkansas? No. Then again the Hogs need to take a page from the New Orleans Saints last season, and be more lucky than good on defense. A few turnovers and not giving up 40 points a game, and Arkansas should win the majority of their games.

I love Georgia implementing a 3-4 defense. The 3-4 is a linebacker's best friend, and UGA always seem to put out stud LBs. I don't know if they have the nose tackle to clog the middle of the line, but ultimately this move will pay off in the long term although it will be a tough transition in year 1.

6. Which first year head coach will have the most success, Joker Phillips at Kentucky or Derek Dooley at Tennessee?

Marshall - Joker Phillips has the best team in 2010, thus Joker will out do his other first year counterpart in Tennessee. Dooley will turn Tennessee around and have the Volunteers in better shape than Phillips and Kentucky in the long term.

Jacob - Joker Phillips. Hands down. If you've read this far, you'll know that I'm on the Kentucky bandwagon this season. They've got the talent returning at the offensive skill positions and a favorable schedule that sees them missing out on the big dogs of the West (Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU). Phillips is extremely familiar with the program and players. All he had to do was switch offices in the building.

Dooley, on the other hand, has his work cut out for him. The Volunteers have a brutal schedule which includes Alabama and LSU from the West and a non-conference date set with last year's Pac-10 champion, the Oregon Ducks. Dooley will also have the serious issue of returning only 9 total starters. Total. Completely. The Vols will be breaking in a brand new QB and virtually a brand new O-Line. Derek Dooley will be fighting for a bowl invite, while Joker will be fighting for a New Year's Day bowl invite.

Anthony - I completely agree with Jacob. Joker Phillips has a favorable schedule (as favorable as an SEC schedule can be) and a lot of talent returning. The Wildcats are primed for a very good year. Derek Dooley, on the other hand, has a brutal schedule and a very young and unproven team. I do think that Dooley is the right man for the job and I hope the Tennessee fan base gives him time to rebuild this storied program back up the RIGHT way. With all that said, the only thing he'll be building up this year are losses.

7. After going winless in SEC play in '09, can Vanderbilt muster a W in '10?

Anthony - Uh, no.

Marshall - Yes they can, and I believe they will. I agree that last year they were pretty bad, and now they will break in a new coach after losing Bobby Johnson, but they return 13 starters, including 2009 SEC Freshman of the Year RB Warren Norman. Along with being dangerous in the return game, Norman also averaged 5.4 yards a carry while running for 783 yards. Looking at their schedule it doesn't look possible, but you never know. I think they get lucky in Oxford.

Jacob - Not a chance. The Commodores were terrible last year, and are more of the same this year. There's a reason Bobby Johnson thought it best to call it quits a matter of months before the season began than to sit through another winless campaign in conference play.

8. Who needs to step up offensively for LSU in 2010?

Jacob - Most Tiger fans are quick to place blame on QB Jordan Jefferson for LSU's offensive woes in '09, but it's hard to make plays down the field when there are angry defenders in your face. If the O-Line can allow JJ a chance to get the ball to his talented crop of WRs (Terrance Toliver, Russell Shepherd, Reuben Randle) and open holes large enough for the Tigers' talented crop of RBs (Stevan Ridley, Richard Murphy, Michael Ford) to run through, then head coach Les Miles might find his seat not so hot at the end of the season.

Anthony - Once again, I agree with Jacob. It starts up front with the big boys on the O-Line. If JJ has enough time to make his reads and get it to the slew of targets he has at WR and TE, and the talented RBs have enough holes to run through, then the offense can be far better than the embarassing 112th nationally ranked offense a year ago.

Marshall - Offensive line, hands down. With protection and an actual running game Jordan should have a much better season than 2009. To look at what Jefferson had last year and the stats he brought in, it is actually quite impressive for the kid. the question really is exactly how much better can the offensive line get? Well, it can't get much worse, that's for sure. So really any improvement at all could be the difference in the Tigers winning 9 or 10 games. LSU is a decent offensive line away from being a title contender.

9. After going 5-7 will Dan Mullen and Mississippi St. continue to move in the right direction or will they take a step back in 2010?

Marshall - After picking Mississippi St. as my biggest surprise team in 2010, I think it's obvious I believe Dan Mullen has them moving in the right direction.

Jacob - Dan Mullen will definitely keep this program moving forward. Granted, when Mullen took over in Starkville before last season there was only one way they could go, and that was up. The Bulldogs were 5-7 in 2009, and virtually a yard away against LSU from a bowl game. I don't think Mullen will stick around long enough to make a long term impact on the program, as he will head for greener pastures when he receives a better job offer.

Anthony - I think overall Dan Mullen has the program moving in the right direction, but their 2010 schedule is absolutely brutal. They face LSU, Alabama, Houston, Florida, and Ole Miss all on the road. They also have typical Western Division opponents Arkansas and Auburn at home. Dan will be hard pressed to take the Bulldogs to a bowl game this season. Despite that, I believe Mullen is absolutely the right man for this job, sometimes you just get the short end of schedule.